Playbook: Mike Johnson’s emerging Ukraine plan

Presented by the Financial Services Forum

With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

YOUR EASTER EGG ROLL WEATHER FORECAST — Via Capital Weather Gang: “Showers and maybe even a thunderstorm or two are possible through around midday. But, during the afternoon, we may see a pause in the rain — well-timed for the Nationals home opener.”

THE NAME GAME — “Trump Eyes High-Profile Wall Street, D.C. Veterans for Treasury Secretary,” by WSJ’s Alex Leary, Andrew Restuccia and Cara Lombardo: “With Election Day more than seven months away, [DONALD] TRUMP is far from cementing his cabinet picks and remains focused foremost on selecting a running mate. … But the early conversations signal that Trump views Wall Street experience as a key factor in making the selection, the people said.” Those mentioned … JOHN PAULSON, SCOTT BESSENT, ROBERT LIGHTHIZER, JAY CLAYTON, JAMIE DIMON, STEVE SCHWARZMAN and JEFF YASS.

JOHNSON SPEAKS — Facing the distinct possibility he might not even hold the gavel as long as KEVIN McCARTHY did, an embattled MIKE JOHNSON went on offense to save his speakership last night.

In a rather newsy Fox News interview, Johnson (1) defended his leadership decisions, (2) gently chided his MAGA-aligned critics and (3) offered a new vision for delivering aid to Ukraine aimed at quelling his critics on the right and protecting him from a mutiny. Watch the clip

ON THE MTG MTV: For starters, Johnson called Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE’s threat to oust him via motion to vacate “a distraction from our mission.” The ensuing chaos, he said, would hinder the GOP from defending the House and flipping the Senate and White House this fall.

“We don’t need any dissension right now,” he told member-turned-host TREY GOWDY, nonetheless calling Greene (R-Ga.) a “friend” and noting that he’s been texting with her and intends to meet with her next week.

Johnson seemed to be trying to impart a dose of reality to GOP viewers. He noted multiple times he’s overseeing “the smallest margin in history,” where “I can only lose one” vote.

“This is not an easy job right now,” he said, adding that he — like Greene and other hard-liners — wasn’t happy with the spending deal he just struck with Democrats. But Republicans are “not going to get the legislation that we all desire and prefer” with Democrats in control of the Senate and White House.

Then, in the middle of March Madness, Johnson reached for some gridiron metaphors: “We have to realize I can’t throw a Hail Mary pass on every single play,” he said, while noting that “incremental wins” are possible. “We’ve got three yards and a cloud of dust, right? We’ve got to get the next first down — keep moving.”

ON SOME “IMPORTANT INNOVATIONS”: Speaking of “incremental wins,” Johnson for the first time publicly articulated three components he is considering making part of any House foreign aid package — what he called “important innovations.”

1. That loan idea … Johnson acknowledged what we reported a couple of weeks ago: That Republicans are considering turning some of the Ukraine assistance into a “loan.”

“Even President Trump has talked about the loan concept where we’re … not just giving foreign aid, we’re setting up in a relationship where they can provide it back to us when the time is right,” Johnson said.

As we’ve written before, Democrats haven’t said no to this officially, so watch this space carefully.

2. Seizing Russian assets … Johnson also mentioned tacking on what’s known as the REPO Act, a bipartisan bill with 80 co-sponsors aimed at seizing frozen Russian assets and handing them to Ukraine. About $300 billion has been frozen in Western banks since VLADIMIR PUTIN ordered his troops to invade in 2022.

“If we can use the seized assets of Russian oligarchs to allow the Ukrainians to fight them, that’s just pure poetry,” Johnson said.

One problem: Only a couple of billion dollars currently resides in the U.S. Most of the cash is in Europe, where some of our allies have been slow to join the push to use the money to help Kiev. (They are, however, starting to come around.)

3. Expanding natural gas exports … This one takes a page out of the NANCY PELOSI songbook: Just a few months into her speakership, in 2007, Pelosi and her fellow Democrats were faced with the politically unpleasant task of approving Iraq War funding. To get the votes, she struck a deal with President GEORGE W. BUSH, linking it with a long-sought minimum wage increase.

That kind of old-fashioned legislative logrolling seems to be what Johnson is eyeing when he talked Sunday about wanting to “unleash American energy, have national gas exports that will un-fund Vladimir Putin’s war effort.”

It’s a not-so-veiled reference to President JOE BIDEN’s recent executive order pausing approvals of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export permits to examine climate impacts. Activists cheered the freeze when it was announced in late January; Republicans (and some Democrats) scowled, and within weeks, the House had passed a bill to roll the decision back.

In other words: Johnson is signaling that a LNG U-turn is table stakes for any Ukraine vote.

WHAT’S NEXT: Rest assured that everyone in politics — from the White House to the leadership suites to MTG herself — is going to be dissecting these new ideas today. The clock is ticking: Congress has another week of recess, yes, but Johnson signaled in the interview that the House will address this matter “right away” when lawmakers return.

We’re told from a senior GOP leadership aide that while the exact proposals Johnson floated are not yet set in stone, an outline of the bill could emerge this week.

Two big questions remain: Will Democrats swallow these demands? And will these “incremental wins” save Johnson from a reckoning on the right?

There’s some new evidence Johnson is paying close attention to that second question. CNN’s Melanie Zanona, Annie Grayer and Manu Raju report that he’s been in touch with potential foes, including Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.), who instigated the McCarthy ouster but has kept his powder dry on Johnson.

On Ukraine, Gaetz said, “I think that he’s forging a better path on that issue as we speak.”

Will what he’s floating be enough? We’ll make some calls and report back soon.

Good Monday morning and Happy April Fools Day. Thanks for reading Playbook, and trust nothing else you read today. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

MIDDLE EAST LATEST — Several important developments surrounding the War in Gaza for your radar as you begin the week:

On the ground in Gaza City, Israel Defense Force troops have withdrawn from Al-Shifa Hospital after a two-week operation targeting Hamas militants; they left behind “a wasteland of destroyed buildings and Palestinian bodies,” Reuters reports.

In the streets of Jerusalem, thousands gathered outside the Knesset yesterday to protest Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and call for new elections in what the NYT called “one of the largest demonstrations against the government in Israel since the start of the war.” The protests followed a mass weekend march in Tel Aviv and are expected to continue into the week.

And over an encrypted video feed later today, U.S. and Israeli leaders are expected to finally conduct a high-level meeting on potential alternatives to the Gaza border town of Rafah, Axios’ Barak Ravid reports. The discussion is happening after Netanyahu canceled earlier plans to send a delegation to Washington after the U.S. permitted a cease-fire resolution to pass the U.N. Security Council last month. “Senior Israeli officials said holding a virtual meeting is a way for Netanyahu to ‘save face’ and have a discussion with the White House about Rafah without sending a delegation to Washington,” Ravid writes, though an in-person meeting could happen as soon as next week.

THE WEEK — Tomorrow: Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Rhode Island and Wisconsin hold presidential primaries. Arkansas and Mississippi hold primary runoffs for down-ballot races. Trump holds campaign rallies in Grand Rapids, Michigan, and Green Bay, Wisconsin. … Wednesday: Biden delivers remarks on health care costs at the White House. … Thursday: NATO marks 75th anniversary. Deadline for Trump to post $175 million appellate bond in New York civil case. … Friday: March employment numbers released. … Saturday: Alaska holds Democratic presidential primary.

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The House and the Senate are out.

What we’re watching … Q1 is now behind us, and the 2024 legislative schedule is dramatically dwindling. With extra-long recesses later this year for party conventions and other election-year politicking, there’s probably only 15 weeks of Senate floor time left before votes are counted, Burgess Everett and Katherine Tully-McManus note at Inside Congress. That poses a dilemma to Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER: Use that scarce time to ram through (almost) sure-thing Biden nominees? Or try to pass trickier bipartisan bills that could help vulnerable Dems in November? “We expect a mix,” Burgess and KTM write.

At the White House

Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN will host the White House Easter Egg Roll on the South Lawn at 10:25 a.m., with VP KAMALA HARRIS and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF attending.

Harris will also receive briefings and conduct internal staff meetings.

PLAYBOOK READS

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

THE LONG GAME ON IVF — Conservative and anti-abortion groups are gearing up for a long-term religious and political battle to cast in vitro fertilization as an immoral practice, laying the groundwork for red states to curtail access to it eventually, Megan Messerly and Alice Miranda Ollstein report in a fascinating story this morning. The Heritage Foundation, Advancing American Freedom and more are envisioning a strategy “to re-run the Roe playbook,” working to shape evangelical Christian public opinion — and ultimately sway Republican politicians — against IVF as it’s usually practiced today.

Though it’s clear that many evangelicals don’t strongly oppose IVF yet, particularly in the wake of the Alabama Supreme Court’s controversial ruling, these groups want to educate religious leaders and churchgoers. Their goal is not an outright ban of all IVF, but significant limits on the fertility treatments, including a limit on the number of embryos and an end to pre-implantation genetic testing. “Those pushing to restrict IVF hope the groundwork the anti-abortion movement laid over the last 50 years will make it easier to persuade evangelicals to support these policies, and they’re recycling some of the messaging.”

More top reads:

JUDICIARY SQUARE

TRUTH AND CONSEQUENCES — “From Pizzagate to the 2020 Election: Forcing Liars to Pay or Apologize,” by NYT’s Elizabeth Williamson: “Convinced that viral lies threaten public discourse and democracy, [MICHAEL GOTTLIEB] is at the forefront of a small but growing cadre of lawyers deploying defamation, one of the oldest areas of the law, as a weapon against a tide of political disinformation.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

FROM RUSSIA, WITH LOVE — You’d be forgiven for feeling confused about “Havana Syndrome”: Every few weeks or months, a new study or news article emerges that casts it as either a serious foreign attack on U.S. officials or a mass psychogenic illness with no evidence of nefarious origins. To the former camp, you can now add last night’s investigation from CBS’ “60 Minutes,” The Insider and Der Spiegel, which for the first time links the mysterious health incidents to a possible Russian spy, VITALII KOVALEV, and Russian intelligence unit 29155.

GREG EDGREEN, who helped lead the U.S. military’s investigation of Havana Syndrome, tells the reporters that the people targeted time and again proved to be officials who had successfully taken on Russia in some capacity — and that the U.S. set the bar for proof “impossibly high,” per CBS. Scott Pelley interviewed CARRIE, an FBI agent who suffered serious symptoms after previously having interviewed Kovalev for 80 hours. And Christo Grozev dug up a document that may link 29155 to “potential capabilities of non-lethal acoustic weapons,” as well as being in Tbilisi, Georgia, when Americans reported symptoms there. Full deep dive from The Insider

More top reads:

TRUMP CARDS

STOCK AND TRADE — “Trump Stock Takes Washington by Storm,” by WSJ’s Amrith Ramkumar: “Almost no one saw it coming. Nearly everything went wrong with the get-rich-quick plan for Trump’s social-media platform to go public by riding one of the biggest speculative waves in market history. As has often been the case with Trump, missteps and obstacles didn’t matter. The combination of luck and his most passionate followers has added a great unknown to the presidential race. And it has suddenly brought everything about social media’s growing influence over financial markets into politics.”

ALL POLITICS

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK I — Democrat JOHN AVLON has pulled in more than $1.1 million over the first 40 days of his New York congressional campaign. A former CNN analyst, Daily Beast editor-in-chief and No Labels co-founder making his first run for elected office, Avlon is looking to marshal momentum in a crowded primary race in the 1st District on Long Island, where Democrats hope to give GOP Rep. NICK LaLOTA a tough race.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK II — DAVID McCORMICK is launching a new ad in the Pennsylvania Senate race that highlights his military experience. Emphasizing his time at West Point, the positive biographical spot features McCormick telling the camera that “we need a new ethic of service in the United States Senate.” The Bronze Star recipient is launching the ad on TV and digital as part of a seven-figure ad buy as the Republican takes on Democratic Sen. BOB CASEY. Watch the 30-second spot

ALL GOOD THINGS — “Embittered Republicans plot to knock off House GOP’s hard-right leader in Virginia primary feud,” by CNN’s Manu Raju and Haley Talbot in Appomattox: “‘BOB GOOD didn’t come here to govern. He came here to be famous,’ [Rep. DERRICK] VAN ORDEN, a Wisconsin Republican, told CNN. ‘Bob Good’s wearing our jersey, and he’s not on the team.’ … But Good is undeterred. … [H]e pointedly accused many of his Republican colleagues in Washington of casting votes that hurt the country and undermine the conservative cause.”

2024 WATCH

THE PROTEST VOTE — The latest state to see Democrats stage an “uncommitted” protest against Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war is New Jersey, where activists are getting on the ballot as would-be delegates, NYT’s Tracey Tully reports.

PLAYBOOKERS

Donald Trump had a truly classic Easter message, featuring attacks on “Fani ‘Fauni’ Willis,” Mark Pomerantz and more.

Rolla Abdeljawad’s visit from the FBI turned into a surprising viral story.

Jacquelyn Martin got personal about covering politics and diplomacy.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Ayodele Okeowo is joining Tusk Strategies as a managing director, working in its D.C. office and CHIPS Act practice. He most recently was director of intergovernmental affairs in the CHIPS Program Office at the Commerce Department.

TRANSITIONS — Kat Cosgrove is now deputy director for policy and advocacy at Freedom House, working on their Asia programs. She previously was legislative director for Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Pa.). … Tanner Wilson is launching Left Turn Creative Strategies, a left-leaning social media/video consulting company. He most recently was at White Coat Waste Project, and is a Ted Cruz and Joni Ernst alum. …

… Haris Alic is now comms director for Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fla.). He previously was comms director for Rep. Mike Carey (R-Ohio), and is a Washington Times and Fox News alum. … Dean Ball is now a research fellow at Mercatus, focused on AI and helping to build out their AI & Progress Initiative. He previously was senior program manager for the Hoover Institution’s State and Local Governance Initiative.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Justice Samuel Alito … Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) … Rachel Maddow … NYT’s Michael Crowley … Sharon Soderstrom … 2 Public Affairs’ Allison Harris … White House’s Jess Smith … Antonio White … Julia Hahn of Sen. Bill Hagerty’s (R-Tenn.) office … Wess Mitchell … Erin Butler … John Palatiello of Miller/Wenhold Capitol Strategies … Ali Breland … Rodrigo Heng-Lehtinen of the National Center for Transgender Equality … Mary Popadiuk … Bully Pulpit Interactive’s Nicholas Rozzo … Campbell O’Connor … Matt Haller of the International Franchise Association … Frances Patano … Nancy Vu … Zi-Ann Lum … Nancy Lee … Matt Purple … Cameron Savage of Limestone Strategies … former Rep. Peter Deutsch (D-Fla.) … Commerce’s Erin Szulman … Elizabeth Villarreal

Send Playbookers tips to [email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.